Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 19.492775 23.529648 28.007096 33.315522 39.410213 46.161217 54.176217
2025-02-16 13.636507 18.899809 25.377954 33.820163 44.403248 57.097741 73.329308
2025-02-23 10.151615 15.742327 23.215141 33.680206 47.671812 65.428613 89.320181
2025-03-02 7.689190 13.207052 21.144414 32.970623 49.656498 71.827943 102.895217
2025-03-09 6.109178 11.521326 19.835986 32.910762 52.220373 78.875630 117.482848
2025-03-16 4.537395 9.458897 17.560557 31.021907 51.829415 81.644620 126.227360
2025-03-23 3.890280 8.793448 17.318903 32.100327 55.749969 90.591809 143.923901
2025-03-30 3.123168 7.721787 16.208104 31.602950 57.137010 95.845082 156.521085
2025-04-06 2.798395 7.433063 16.395306 33.229673 61.922469 106.356798 177.243901
2025-04-13 2.064354 6.096412 14.440184 30.906280 60.057585 106.545957 182.505313
2025-04-20 1.774157 5.673397 14.154747 31.497576 63.036411 114.372212 199.649012
2025-04-27 1.564543 5.389101 14.097513 32.484255 66.729584 123.484305 219.133058
2025-05-04 1.320385 4.986052 13.809441 33.163747 70.236989 132.979475 240.494452
2025-05-11 1.108255 4.608143 13.526288 33.853256 73.886154 143.041453 263.475751
2025-05-18 0.888888 4.120970 12.891081 33.726333 75.990615 150.592546 282.720052
2025-05-25 0.686892 3.595142 12.043701 33.016872 76.892719 156.081051 298.768058
2025-06-01 0.551374 3.234706 11.532210 32.957007 79.011636 163.758584 318.750977
2025-06-08 0.387482 2.660521 10.300630 31.065997 77.283767 164.443026 326.852646
2025-06-15 0.335778 2.540385 10.329652 32.145653 81.686041 176.428172 354.844780
2025-06-22 0.258027 2.241010 9.747967 31.647707 82.733300 182.263312 372.330527
2025-06-29 0.233680 2.208589 9.999289 33.276285 88.427026 197.031215 406.087766
2025-07-06 0.152832 1.770520 8.793528 30.950237 85.315591 194.947908 409.736211
2025-07-13 0.126879 1.659192 8.686492 31.542213 88.714554 205.512183 436.534219